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The impending 2024 presidential election carries profound implications for the nation’s energy policy, particularly concerning the fate of clean energy tax credits established by the Inflation Reduction Act. As the political landscape shifts, the future of these incentives hangs in a delicate balance, with competing interests vying to shape the trajectory of America’s transition towards a more sustainable energy future.

The Inflation Reduction Act’s impact

The Inflation Reduction Act, a landmark legislation passed in 2022, ushered in a wave of tax credits and incentives aimed at accelerating the adoption of renewable energy sources and promoting clean energy initiatives. From wind turbines dotting the landscapes of states like Montana and Wyoming to the burgeoning electric vehicle and battery manufacturing facilities cropping up across the nation, the act’s provisions have catalyzed significant investments and job creation in traditionally conservative strongholds.

The Republican conundrum: Balancing ideology and economic realities

Many Republican lawmakers who vehemently opposed the Inflation Reduction Act now find themselves in a precarious position. While they initially decried the legislation as an irresponsible spending spree that would exacerbate inflation, the tangible benefits it has brought to some of their constituents have forced them to reconsider their stance.

Notably, a coalition of 18 House Republicans, led by New York Republican Representative Andrew Garbarino, recently lobbied House Speaker Mike Johnson, imploring him not to consider cuts to clean energy tax credits if the party expands its House majority in 2025.

As the 2024 election looms, the Republican party finds itself at a crossroads. On one hand, it has pledged to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, aligning with its long-standing opposition to government intervention in the energy sector. However, this stance could potentially jeopardize the very projects and jobs that have revitalized local economies in Republican-leaning states.

The Elite Vehicles Act: A critical compromise?

In a strategic move, Republicans have introduced the Elite Vehicles Act, a bill aimed at eliminating lavish incentives for electric vehicles (EVs) while preserving other clean energy tax credits. This proposal seeks to appease their base by scaling back the EV tax credit, which they argue disproportionately benefits wealthy individuals purchasing high-end EVs.

However, the true intent behind this maneuver may be more nuanced. By targeting the EV credit, Republicans can claim they are dismantling parts of the Inflation Reduction Act while simultaneously preserving the incentives that have proven beneficial to their constituencies, such as the Investment Tax Credit and the Production Tax Credit for renewable energy projects.

The expiring Trump tax cuts: A potential bargaining chip

As the 2024 election approaches, another pivotal issue looms on the horizon: the expiration or phaseout of certain key provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. These provisions, including the research and development (R&D) tax credit and bonus depreciation, have been instrumental in supporting businesses and promoting economic growth.

Interestingly, both Republicans and Democrats have expressed some desire to extend these tax benefits, creating a potential avenue for compromise. Republicans may seek the extension of these provisions while making the concession to preserve the clean energy tax credits that have proven economically advantageous to their states.

Navigating the crossroads

Depending on the outcome of the 2024 election, several scenarios could unfold, each with profound implications for the nation’s energy policy:

Scenario 1: Republican trifecta

If Republicans secure control of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives, they may face immense pressure from their base to fulfill their promise of repealing the Inflation Reduction Act. However, the economic realities on the ground and the potential backlash from industries and states benefiting from the clean energy tax credits could prompt a more nuanced approach.

In this scenario, Republicans may opt for a strategic compromise, preserving the core incentives that have spurred investment and job growth while scaling back or modifying provisions they deem excessive or unfair, such as the EV tax credit.

Scenario 2: Democratic majority

Conversely, if Democrats regain control of the legislative branch and retain control of the executive branch, they are likely to double down on their commitment to clean energy and climate action. This could result in an extension or expansion of the existing tax credits and incentives, further bolstering the transition towards renewable energy sources.

However, even in this scenario, compromises may be necessary to secure bipartisan support for extending popular business-friendly provisions like the R&D tax credit and bonus depreciation.

Scenario 3: Divided government

A divided government, with control split between Republicans and Democrats, could lead to a complex negotiation process. Both parties may seek to leverage their bargaining power, with Republicans pushing for the preservation of business tax incentives and Democrats advocating for the continuation of clean energy tax credits.

In such a scenario, the potential for compromise lies in finding common ground, where both parties can claim victories for their respective constituencies. This could involve extending or modifying specific provisions from both the Inflation Reduction Act and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, creating a balanced approach that addresses the concerns of both sides. Alternatively, the two parties might not be able to reach a compromise and no substantive tax provisions may pass.

The enduring influence of industry and market forces

Regardless of the political landscape, it is crucial to recognize the powerful influence of industry and market forces on the trajectory of energy policy. As businesses continue to invest in clean energy projects and technologies, driven by economic incentives and consumer demand, the momentum towards a more sustainable energy future may prove difficult to reverse.

Major corporations and industries, including the oil and gas sector, have embraced the opportunities presented by the Inflation Reduction Act, recognizing the long-term benefits of transitioning to cleaner energy sources. This corporate buy-in, coupled with the job creation and economic growth spurred by the act’s provisions, could serve as a counterweight to any attempts of an outright repeal or drastic changes.

The evolving role of states in shaping energy policy

In addition to federal initiatives, states have emerged as influential players in shaping energy policy. Many states, including those traditionally aligned with conservative values, have embraced renewable energy and clean energy initiatives, recognizing their potential for economic development and job creation.

As the 2024 election unfolds, the interplay between federal and state policies will become increasingly important. States may choose to enact their own incentives and regulations to support clean energy initiatives, potentially offsetting or complementing federal efforts.

Long-term planning and investor confidence

Amidst the political uncertainties, businesses and investors in the clean energy sector must maintain a long-term perspective. The transition toward a more sustainable energy future requires substantial upfront investments and long-term planning horizons.

Investor confidence and predictability in energy policy are crucial factors influencing decision-making processes. Abrupt policy shifts or the threat of repealing existing incentives could undermine investor confidence, potentially stalling progress and hampering the growth of the clean energy industry.

How Wipfli can help

The road ahead is uncertain, but our dedicated professionals are ready to help navigate the future of energy and tax policy. If your business is unsure about how to proceed with upcoming projects, or you’re concerned about existing efforts that have already broken ground, we can offer advice and guidance to get you through election season, and the years to come. Contact us today to get started. Make sure to also visit our election hub to stay up to date on candidate stances and explore more resources.